Quantcast
Channel: StanGraphs » Draft Discussion | StanGraphs
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 12

Draft Week Countdown: The Results

0
0
Meet Marco Gonzales, a first round pick who will ideally succeed more on a Miller/Wacha level than a Kozma/Greene level.

Meet Marco Gonzales, a first round pick who will ideally succeed more on a Miller/Wacha level than a Kozma/Greene level.

Perhaps it’s silly to be taken off guard by happenings in the rule four draft, but damn it, we’re still surprised. Everything we’d heard and read suggested the Cardinals were likely to buck an organizational trend and opt for tools-laden position players like shortstop Tim Anderson or outfielder Austin Wilson in this year’s draft. Things didn’t work out that way, as Anderson went earlier than expected when the White Sox pulled their patented shock trigger, and Wilson wound up going well after the first round to the Mariners with the 49th pick. Mozeliak and company wound up with safe left-handed pitchers in the first round, and in retrospect there really isn’t any good reason for our confusion.

Before the Cardinals even got their chance to get their feathery mitts on any young, talented players, there were a couple of early surprises when it comes to what other teams did and didn’t do. While no one was phased by Mark Appel, Kris Bryant, and Jonathan Gray going 1-2-3, quite an internet scuttlebutt erupted when the Royals snatched Stephen F. Austin infielder Hunter Dozier in the eight spot. A shortstop who isn’t projected to stick at the position but should develop power, Dozier was seen as more of a late first-round pick before the draft began, but who knows? Maybe he’ll be one of the lucky two percent of Royal prospects that sort of pans out. One of the theoretically better players KC passed on was fireballer Braden Shipley, who was seen as a top-10 pick by many but fell to Arizona at 15 and briefly made me think he might slip to St. Louis at 19.

So what did scouting master Dan Kantrovitz and the Cardinals end up doing with the front end of their draft, anyway? Good question, Brian. Quit talking to yourself and answer it. Here’s a recap of what the first five rounds looked like for the Redbirds:

Pick 19: Marco Gonzales/LHP/Gonzaga

The first two picks the Cardinals made were hardly surprising, and that trend started with the selection of Gonzales. Like so many Cardinal draftees before him, Gonzalez is seen by scouts as the type of pitcher who should have little problem getting to the major leagues but won’t ever be a star. He doesn’t have eye popping velocity and gets by on control, command, and changing speeds. It never hurts to have more pitching, and the Cardinals must have felt Gonzales was their best and safest option by the time they were on the clock.

Pick 28: Rob Kaminsky/LHP/High School

Speaking of seemingly safe pitchers, Kaminsky is thought to be another one. As we mentioned in our draft preview post, Kaminsky is considered highly refined for a pitcher coming out of how school, though he’s once again a bit limited when it comes to ceiling. Another lefty, Kaminsky throws a bit harder than Gonzales, already has a nice curve ball, and should have the control and command to succeed at the highest level. While he’s a tad less of a sure thing, it’s easy to like Kaminsky more than Gonzales when it comes to upside. Upside’s fun.

Pick 58: Oscar Mercado/SS/High School

Even if the first two Cardinal picks weren’t sexy, they were still extremely reasonable and defensible. The late second round selection of Oscar Mercado, however, is quite a head-scratcher. Any scouting report experts across the internet have on Mercado says virtually the same thing–this is an all glove, no bat shortstop whose glove isn’t even all that foolproof. Mercado doesn’t have the raw athleticism or tools that scouts feel will lead to much of anything at the plate, but perhaps a refined approach in the field could make him, I don’t know, a lesser Brendan Ryan? I’m getting sad, so I’d better move on to the next player.

Pick 93: Mike Mayers/RHP/Ole Miss

Mayers is another uninspiring pick, as he doesn’t have stuff that projects him as more than a backend guy even if things break right. Based on the opinions of Baseball America, Keith Law, and others across the internet, the Cardinals really didn’t need to take Mayers until later. Then again the last Cardinal prospect from Ole Miss was Lance Lynn, and he randomly turned a four-starter ceiling into whatever the hell kind of beast mode he’s been in for a while now. Lance Lynn is so good.

Pick 125: Mason Katz/1B/LSU

Katz is unusually small for a first baseman, but it should be noted that he’s actually been used at like 212 positions over the course of his collegiate career. That’s 203 more than there even are! The lowdown on Katz according to Baseball America is that he ought to be able to hit for some power despite being roughly my size minus the completely unthinkable diet. As for becoming a complete hitter, he may require some retooling first.

Pick 155: Ian McKinney/LHP/High School

What’s that? Another left-handed pitcher? McKinney isn’t the McKinney we were hoping for when we posted our Cardinal draft preview (see: Billy McKinney in the first round), as rather than being a polished hitter, he’s another finesse hurler who leaves us wanting for star power. We’re awfully greedy, after all. McKinney tops out around 90, is built like the kid who hands you your Taco Bell out the drive-through window, and relies on control more than anything else. At least that’s what the people who know more things than I do say.

It’s really hard to criticize a Cardinal draft at this point because, well, the team has never been in a better position than it is today and a lot of that is due to recent drafting excellence. Still, I’m going to take a whack at it anyway because even the best organizations are going to make mistakes or at least leave many thinking they have.

Just glancing at the list of draftees above feels a bit underwhelming, as it seems that the Cardinals have chosen to play it extraordinarily safe in a year that could have been one to take a chance or two. With the farm system so chocked full of budding stars, maybe 2013 could have been the year to gamble on an Austin Wilson or an Aaron Judge early. I certainly understand the appeal of going with quality arms who could fill out the back end of a major league rotation sooner rather than later, but sometimes risk and reward really are intertwined.

Then again, perhaps Kantrovitz and his crew simply feel better off staying safe in the early, expensive rounds and taking chances later on. This is, after all, an organization that has gotten insane mileage out of late-round draft picks that have blossomed into far more than what other teams and scouts ever believed they could be. One needn’t look past Albert Pujols, Matt Carpenter, and Allen Craig to quickly see that, and there may be a dozen really cheap diamonds in the rough headed to St. Louis on a warpath following this draft for all we know. So again, as disappointing as this draft may seem, damning it this early on would be foolish given the current regime’s ability to find talent in obscure places and the minor league system’s ability to nurture that talent into something special.

Not to venture too far off topic, but another thing I love about the Cardinals right now is that all of these homegrown contributors are getting a chance to play at all, something that would  have been virtually unthinkable under the helm of Tony La Russa. Mike Matheny, in my mind, has been far more accepting and level-headed when it comes to roster management and who to run out there on a daily basis, and perhaps more importantly, I don’t think he hangs over John Mozeliak’s shoulder like a domineering phantom in tinted glasses each and every team a transaction might take place. I guess all I’m saying is that the young fellows who just entered the Cardinal system have done so at an excellent time, and I know that whatever the scouting department has seen in them will have a chance to come out.


Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 12

Latest Images

Trending Articles





Latest Images